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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But this year's race is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and recent also-rans ascending together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still